Anastasios Tsonis

The Earth is currently warming, and its climate is changing everywhere. It is happening at a much faster rate than is natural. It is caused in large part by human activities. But a new study, first covered by Discovery News, has been making its way around the blogs that is causing climate change and global warming deniers to celebrate en masse - “Warming might be on hold, study finds“.

What the News Says

The news coverage details how a study, "Has the climate recently shifted?", conducted by Professors Anastasios Tsonis and Kyle Swanson, of the University of Wisconsin, may conclude that global warming due to anthropogenic causes is on hold. According to the Discovery News article,

"following a 30-year trend of warming, global temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations."

Discovery News asks,

"How does this square with temperature records from 2005-2007, by some measurements among the warmest years on record? When added up with the other four years since 2001, Swanson said the overall trend is flat, even though temperatures should have gone up by 0.2 degrees Centigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) during that time."

Per CNSNews.com,

"Democratic senators reported on Tuesday that despite a recent study that shows global temperatures have been dropping since 2001 and that projects the globe will continue to cool for the next several decades, they think the United States should continue to push forward with aggressive action to curb climate change."

They also report that the study projected that due to "global variation" the climate would continue to cool for the next 20 to 30 years. Tsonis told CNSNews.com that his work indicated that temperatures had flattened and slightly decreased since 2001 and that, due to natural cycles, temperature would continue to decrease for several decades. "The temperature has flattened and is actually going down," Tsonis reported. "We are seeing a new shift towards cooler temperatures that will last for probably about three decades."

Dr. William Gray, who is quoted in the article, is emeritus professor (retired, but retains his title) of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and a scientist in the field of hurricane prediction. He has lectured for some time claiming that there has been some global warming over the last 100 years largely due to natural circulation changes in the oceans.

"But the world is not in a climate crisis as Vice President Gore would say," Gray said a little over a year ago. "We have many other important problems in this world we have to work on. And this is a red herring item that we can’t do anything about anyways. If we vastly cut down on our fossil fuels it would be a drop in the bucket in terms of global temperature change. The Third World – India, China and so on – are going to keep burning these fossil fuels."

As reported by MSNBC,

"Following a 30-year trend of warming, global temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and a heat surplus that should have cranked up the planetary thermostat."

What the Bloggers Say

Anthony Watts, who writes on "Watts Up With That", had a guest post about the report by climate change denier Steven Goddard, who starts off, "It appears that global cooling recognition may be starting to make headway in the scientific community." Goddard then goes on to quote Isaac Held of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, New Jersey: "It is possible that a fraction of the most recent rapid warming since the 1970’s was due to a free variation in climate, suggesting that the warming might possibly slow down or even stagnate for a few years before rapid warming commences again." He adds, "And Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years." He then posts the entire MSNBC article verbatim, and finishes it up with "That is strange. We hear from highly respected authorities that we were in a period of 'unprecedented warming.' How can it be both warming and cooling at the same time?" Finally, he places an image of a graph, sourced from NASA, showing global average temperatures from 1880 to current.

What Tsonis and Swanson Say

As described in Discovery News, when added up with the other four years since 2001, Swanson said the overall trend is flat, even though temperatures should have gone up by 0.2 degrees Centigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) during that time.

As reported in CNSNews.com, Tsonis also said that neither he nor Swanson think their study undermines arguments for global warming caused by human activity.

"We are not saying there is not warming due to human activity. We are saying that there are natural shifts on top of that. But, for now, it looks like it is going to cool."

Tsonis said that currently the natural cycles, which occur in part because of the way oceans interact, are stronger than the influence human activity has on the environment. According to Tsonis, when the Earth begins to warm again in several decades, the globe could be in trouble because natural warming and man-made warming will occur simultaneously.

"At this point it [natural variation] at least balances, or may be stronger, than the human influence," said Tsonis. "But if temperatures shift again as we believe they will, then warming will be dramatic. It will be natural warming on top of human warming."

Tsonis also reports, "The temperature has flattened and is actually going down. We are seeing a new shift towards cooler temperatures that will last for probably about three decades."

Per MSNBC, "This is nothing like anything we've seen since 1950," Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. "Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Niñas. This current cooling doesn't have one."

Instead, Swanson and colleague Anastasios Tsonis think a series of climate processes have aligned, conspiring to chill the climate. In 1997 and 1998, the tropical Pacific Ocean warmed rapidly in what Swanson called a "super El Niño event." It sent a shock wave through the oceans and atmosphere, jarring their circulation patterns into unison.

Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years. But he warned that it's just a hiccup, and that humans' penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us.

"When the climate kicks back out of this state, we'll have explosive warming," Swanson said. "Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive."

What the Report Says

"Has the climate recently shifted?" essentially states that, using new measuring techniques, Earth's warming climate peaked in 2001/2002. In 2001/02 climate shifted away from the consistent warming trend for the period 1976/77 to 2001/02. This is set against a background of global CO2 emissions increasing at a rate of 3.5% per year since 2000. It describes how the Earth's various climactic feedbacks are synchronized and connected (coupled). Any misstep in this connectedness would lead to a huge "crash", or change. It does not detail, or offer any proof of, what may have caused the supposed crash, which is marked by a break in the global mean temperature trend.

It details how this shift is superimposed upon a long-term warming trend due to anthropogenic forcing.

"Extension of this analysis to the entire 20th century as shown in the bottom panel of Figure 1 reveals three climate shifts marked by breaks in the temperature trend with respect to time, superimposed upon an overall warming presumably due to increasing greenhouse gases."

They describe a graph (Figure 2 in the report) which shows seasonal temperature anomalies derived from the HadCRUT3g temperature data after 1950. They explain that over this period, there have been 6 cooling episodes, of which three are associated with tropical volcanic eruptions- Agung in 1963, El Chichon in 1982, and Pinatubo in 1991; while the 1955 and 1973 events coincide with large amplitude La Niña events. "Curiously, the most recent and ongoing cooling event has no obvious proximate explanation, as there has been no substantive recent volcanic activity and the ENSO cycle since 2001/2002 has been benign (variability of less than one standard deviation of the multivariate ENSO index)."

Here are some relevant passages:

"If as suggested here, a dynamically driven climate shift has occurred, the duration of similar shifts during the 20th century suggests the new global mean temperature trend may persist for several decades. Of course, it is purely speculative to presume that the global mean temperature will remain near current levels for such an extended period of time. Moreover, we caution that the shifts described here are presumably superimposed upon a long term warming trend due to anthropogenic forcing. However, the nature of these past shifts in climate state suggests the possibility of near constant temperature lasting a decade or more into the future must at least be entertained."

"It is straightforward to argue that a climate with significant internal variability is a climate that is very sensitive to applied anthropogenic radiative anomalies. If the role of internal variability in the climate system is as large as this analysis would seem to suggest, warming over the 21st century may well be larger than that predicted by the current generation of models, given the propensity of those models to underestimate climate internal variability."

"If the role of internal variability in the climate system is as large as this analysis would seem to suggest, warming over the 21st century may well be larger than that predicted by the current generation of models, given the propensity of those models to underestimate climate internal variability."

The Truth, and What is Being Left Out

The Earth's climate is continuing on a path of warming. Human emissions of CO₂, among other greenhouse gases, are mostly to blame. The Earth is equipped to handle all natural carbon dioxide emissions; mankind's activities are wholly responsible for the increasing CO₂ emissions. This is easily proven, such as by looking at the ice core records of stable CO2 concentrations since the end of the last ice age, or from carbon isotope data for fossil fuel carbon, for example. Ice core levels of CO₂ in 1832 were 284 ppm. Current levels, as of February, 2009, are 387 ppm. Carbon dioxide levels have not been this high for at least 800,000 years. During the 100,000 year ice age cycle, CO2 varies between a low of approximately 200 ppm during cold periods and a high of 280 ppm during interglacials. Recent human influences have increased this to current levels. There is a large natural flux of CO2 into and out of the biosphere and oceans. In the pre-industrial era these fluxes were largely in balance. Currently about 57% of human-emitted CO2 is removed by the biosphere and oceans; without this effect CO2 levels would be even higher. The longest ice core record comes from East Antarctica, where ice has been sampled to an age of 800 thousand years BP (Before Present). During this time, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has varied by volume between 180 - 210 ppm during ice ages, increasing to 280 - 300 ppm during warmer interglacials. Present carbon dioxide levels are likely higher now than at any time during the past 20 myr.

Anthropogenic global warming it not a new idea; it has been recognized as early as 1880. In fact, there's no question at all that humans are responsible for the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The strongest evidence comes from measurements of the amount of carbon-12, -13, and -14 isotopes in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels has a unique signature not shared by naturally occurring CO2 from volcanoes or biomass. This is well described in IPCC reports and in this post, among other places.

These increasing levels of CO2 are causing average worldwide temperatures to trend warmer. This is the current scientific consensus. The American Meteorological Society (AMO) has endorsed the Joint Academies' Statement which is signed by eleven countries and opens with the words "Climate Change is real". Its conclusion starts out "We urge all nations, in the line with the UNFCCC principles, to take prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change, adapt to its impacts and ensure that the issue is included in all relevant national and international strategies."

The more time that passes, the more information we have solidifying this fact. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the twentieth century, and that natural phenomena such as solar variation and volcanoes probably had a small warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect afterward. These basic conclusions have been endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of science, including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.

The bloggers and deniers quoted, the news agencies, and, above all, the report by Swanson and Tsonis fail to prove that average increasing worldwide temperatures have slowed down or trended cooler since 2001.

Of course, there is no evidence of Earth's long-term temperature average dropping; in fact, all of the evidence points to continued warming. See temperature record and temperature record since 1880, for starters.

2005 was named as the "hottest and stormiest year" on record by NASA. That record was subsequently broken in 2006.

Also regarding temperature records from 2005-2007, by most measurements among the warmest years on record, when added up with the other four years since 2001, Swanson said the overall trend is flat, even though temperatures should have gone up by 0.2 degrees Centigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) during that time.

Warming DID occur between 2001 and current. Here's some stats, per Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Sciences Directorate:
2001, 14.57 degrees Celsius
2002, 14.69 degrees Celsius (increase from 2001 & year prior)
2003, 14.67 degrees Celsius (increase from 2001)
2004, 14.60 degrees Celsius (increase from 2001)
2005, 14.76 degrees Celsius (increase from 2001 & year prior)
2006, 14.66 degrees Celsius (increase from 2001)
2007, 14.73 degrees Celsius (increase from 2001 & year prior)

Also, per the NOAA, 6 of the last 7 years since 2001 have been warmer:
year °C Anomaly from mean (1901-2000)
2005 0.6058
1998 0.5768
2002 0.5575
2003 0.5566
2006 0.5524
2007 0.5499
2004 0.5332
2001 0.4939

To counter this information, Tsonis points me to a Hadley Center graph which shows short-term cooling trends, but ignores polar amplification. This easily explains the cooling shown by Hadley's data. However, even the Hadley Center predicts, per the current generation of models, tremendous warming this century. Damningly, even using Hadley's data the 2000s are easily the hottest decade in recorded history.

The facts speak for themselves. View this chart, sourced from NASA. It plainly tells us that there has been warming since 2001.

Further, while the recent La Niña and solar minimum have likely had a mild impact in slowing the global temperature rise, one of the likely reasons the temperature record doesn't show much warming since 2005 is that we simply lack the temperature recording stations in the Arctic and necessary to reveal the unprecedented warming there.

Tsonis and Swanson specify that their results are not at all contradictory with the idea of a long-term average global warming trend; rather, they are attempting to describe the climate's internal variability that everyone is already aware of.

The bloggers and news agencies frequently get the information all wrong, while failing to do their own actual fact checking or research. Note the frequently peppered words "may", "might", and "possible". Swanson and Tsonis continue to state that their unproven findings will lead to "rapid warming" commencing. That's right. Manmade global warming, according to the professors, will return.

Most of the so-called "experts" quoted in the news articles and blog posts are standard global warming deniers or flat-out unqualified. Dr. William Gray has zero peer-reviewed papers on climatology. Zero. Gray is a scientist in the field of hurricane prediction, which is weather forecasting, not climate science. Dr. Gray is also known for using a 1975 Newsweek about global cooling to discredit climatologists. It has been well documented by both Realclimate.org and Dr. Connolley that the scientific community never predicted an ice age. While there was talk about ice ages in mainstream magazines and even newspapers, there were no predictions of imminent global cooling in peer review journals or the National Academy of Sciences press releases. In fact, the very same year Newsweek ran their global cooling expose the National Academy of Sciences released a report on climate change which stated:

Unfortunately, we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course. Without this fundamental understanding, it does not seem possible to predict climate-neither in short-term variations nor in any in its larger long-term changes.

Steven Goddard, who wrote the blog post on the Watts Up With That blog, but not the story, is a standard climate change denier hack. And Steven, for the record- the climate is not warming and cooling at the same time.

Professor Bob Carter, who was also quoted in one of the posts, whose background is in marine geology, has little, if any, standing in the climate science community. He is a well known climate change skeptic. His scientific credibility on the issue is comparable to the credibility that Philip Morris has on the health effects of smoking. Carter is a member of the Institute of Public Affairs, which receives funding from Caltex, Esso Australia (a subsidiary of Exxon) and Shell and Woodside Petroleum; and fifteen major companies in the electricity industry. He has not proven his theories, or even attempted to prove them; he just writes about them with no evidence or credibility.

Swanson and Tsonis do not call their proposed find "cooling". Only climate change and global warming deniers have started calling this a global cooling. Swanson and Tsonis conclude, "If as suggested here, a dynamically driven climate shift has occurred, the duration of similar shifts during the 20th century suggests the new global mean temperature trend may persist for several decades. Of course, it is purely speculative to presume that the global mean temperature will remain near current levels for such an extended period of time. Moreover, we caution that the shifts described here are presumably superimposed upon a long term warming trend due to anthropogenic forcing." They also say that it is speculative to presume global average temperatures will remain near current levels; that any shifts would be in addition to a long term warming trend due to anthropogenic forcing; and that future warming may be larger than previously thought.

If you have any doubt about increasing global temperatures, or that average worldwide temperatures are slowing down, wait a decade. Remember, "We'll have explosive warming," Swanson said. We don't have time to wait on action, but mankind will prove its collective ability to affect worldwide temperatures, even while denying our influence on the climate.

For further information, please see the following two tables:

Average Global Temperature, 1880-2007

Composite CO2 record (0-800 kyr BP)

Average Global Temperature, 1880-2007

Average Global Temperature, 1880-2007
Year	Temperature
	Degrees Celsius
1880	13.88
1881	13.86
1882	13.98
1883	13.94
1884	13.57
1885	13.76
1886	13.73
1887	13.53
1888	13.75
1889	14.05
1890	13.78
1891	13.44
1892	13.59
1893	13.60
1894	13.67
1895	13.67
1896	13.72
1897	13.85
1898	13.80
1899	13.75
1900	13.94
1901	13.95
1902	13.70
1903	13.65
1904	13.58
1905	13.75
1906	13.85
1907	13.60
1908	13.70
1909	13.69
1910	13.80
1911	13.75
1912	13.67
1913	13.72
1914	13.98
1915	14.05
1916	13.80
1917	13.53
1918	13.66
1919	13.92
1920	13.83
1921	13.95
1922	13.90
1923	13.83
1924	13.88
1925	13.84
1926	14.04
1927	13.94
1928	13.99
1929	13.77
1930	13.96
1931	14.02
1932	14.04
1933	13.89
1934	14.05
1935	13.92
1936	14.02
1937	14.12
1938	14.15
1939	13.98
1940	14.14
1941	14.12
1942	14.11
1943	14.06
1944	14.11
1945	13.99
1946	14.01
1947	14.12
1948	13.98
1949	13.91
1950	13.83
1951	13.98
1952	14.04
1953	14.12
1954	13.91
1955	13.92
1956	13.82
1957	14.08
1958	14.10
1959	14.05
1960	13.98
1961	14.10
1962	14.05
1963	14.02
1964	13.75
1965	13.85
1966	13.92
1967	13.98
1968	13.91
1969	14.00
1970	14.04
1971	13.90
1972	13.95
1973	14.18
1974	13.94
1975	13.98
1976	13.79
1977	14.16
1978	14.07
1979	14.14
1980	14.28
1981	14.40
1982	14.09
1983	14.34
1984	14.15
1985	14.12
1986	14.19
1987	14.35
1988	14.39
1989	14.26
1990	14.48
1991	14.44
1992	14.15
1993	14.19
1994	14.32
1995	14.46
1996	14.39
1997	14.41
1998	14.72
1999	14.46
2000	14.42
2001	14.57
2002	14.69
2003	14.67
2004	14.60
2005	14.76
2006	14.66
2007	14.73
Source: Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Sciences Directorate, "Global Temperature Anomalies in .01 C," at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt, updated January 2008.

Back to List of Tables

Composite CO2 record (0-800 kyr BP)

Composite CO2 record (0-800 kyr BP)
Age (years BP)	CO2 (ppmv)
0	387.41
137	280.4
268	274.9
279	277.9
395	279.1
404	281.9
485	277.7
559	281.1
672	282.2
754	280.1
877	278.4
950	276.6
1060	279.1
1153	277.7
1233	278.7
1350	277.4
1453	279.2
1552	280
1638	278.9
1733	278.7
1812	278
1931	276.9
2057	276.7
2128	276.7
2212	277.6
2334	277.9
2433	273.9
2536	278.9
2604	275.3
2728	274.7
2806	276.3
2902	274.6
3053	276.3
3116	273.1
3215	274
3336	275
3453	273.4
3523	273
3622	271.5
3721	275.4
3790	274.9
3910	271.7
4004	271.6
4096	272.8
4161	271.5
4324	271.1
4374	269.1
4480	269.8
4573	271.5
4703	270.7
4766	269.3
4874	268.6
5004	269.8
5094	267.6
5160	265.3
5274	265.2
5370	267.6
5476	265.9
5562	265.5
5657	260.7
5716	266.7
5855	265.5
5998	263.2
6039	262.7
6131	261.2
6263	261.1
6354	259.4
6434	262.1
6545	262.9
6617	258.1
6713	257.6
6838	262.3
6941	263
7028	260.7
7112	258.4
7234	260.1
7320	260.4
7413	259.7
7507	259.2
7590	260.8
7691	259.6
7781	259.3
7876	258.3
7990	261.3
8050	260.7
8181	261.8
8281	259
8387	260.9
8477	260.4
8579	259.3
8653	262
8784	263.7
8869	263.8
8973	265.2
9092	260.6
9140	260.9
9232	263
9317	263.8
9536	264.4
9597	264.2
9721	264
9807	263.4
9909	265.7
9983	264.9
10088	267.5
10209	266.9
10294	266
10417	265.1
10527	267.6
10621	264.8
10744	264.8
10805	265
10827	265.3
10895	264.4
10933	264.1
11014	264.2
11087	264.5
11136	264
11201	263
11236	265.2
11278	258.8
11338	260.8
11392	255.4
11436	253.9
11469	253.8
11580	250.7
11635	249.7
11676	251.1
11727	250.7
11819	245.3
11896	245.3
11958	246.6
12050	243.2
12122	240.3
12371	237.5
12496	237.6
12642	234.2
12760	238.3
12942	237.3
13090	237.9
13241	237.6
13440	236.4
13542	239.2
13653	238.6
13804	238.6
13948	239.1
14303	228.5
14550	228.4
14725	226.1
14890	225.2
15012	224.5
15233	222
15438	221
15570	220.9
15742	219.4
15886	214
16073	207.5
16260	207.7
16452	202.9
16659	200.8
16870	195.2
17111	193.9
17375	191
17565	188.5
17809	188.5
17943	189.2
18285	187
18541	188.6
18828	189.4
18868	192.3
18921	188.3
19347	188.7
19509	188.8
19748	190
19988	188
20168	188.2
20197	195
20502	187.8
20748	186.9
21011	186.5
21257	184.7
21507	186.1
21854	185.7
22015	184.4
22827	189.2
25994	191.6
29063	188.5
30020	191.7
35009	205.3
37471	209.1
43500	209.1
47336	189.3
48854	188.4
49690	210.1
50663	215.7
52382	190.4
57088	221.7
57657	210.4
62859	195.3
64939	191.4
65939	194.9
71049	227.3
73227	229.1
77150	217.1
78183	221.7
80614	230.9
82417	241.1
83333	236.4
84016	228
85020	214.2
86181	217
87917	208
90357	224.2
91249	228.3
94353	232
99849	225.8
100837	230.8
101749	236.9
103465	228.1
104704	236.9
105636	230.6
107579	238.2
108153	245.6
109804	251.2
111862	256.7
113262	266.3
114096	261.4
114601	274.5
115118	273.2
116501	262.5
117750	267.6
118649	273.7
119672	271.9
120382	265.2
121017	277.6
122344	272.1
123070	276.4
124213	268.7
124257	266.6
124789	266.3
125081	279.7
125262	273
125434	277.1
126347	273.7
126598	267.1
126886	262.5
127132	262.6
127622	275.3
127907	275.6
128344	274
128372	287.1
128609	286.8
128866	282.6
129146	264.1
129340	263.4
129652	257.9
129736	259
131329	245
131455	240.4
131728	228.9
132492	223.5
133069	223.9
133105	220.3
133427	210.6
134123	208.9
134287	203.7
134960	204.5
135114	200.4
135207	198
135603	198
135883	201.7
136011	200.7
136251	202.4
136567	195.8
136655	201.1
137293	194.3
137633	193.4
137982	194.2
138185	190.2
139275	192.3
139617	196.5
140899	195.6
140960	196.4
142058	190.4
145363	196.9
148831	203
149803	191.9
149921	188.9
151423	200.6
154480	189
155395	185.5
155813	187.5
159562	204.3
159943	196.5
161679	191.6
162228	190.1
163024	186.7
163698	183.8
164439	196.6
167183	197.8
169492	197.7
171351	196
172434	190.3
173135	189.4
173394	190.1
175306	207.7
177139	213.2
178179	217.7
179117	198.1
180068	199.7
182046	203.4
184685	210.7
186697	231.3
188436	231.4
189076	220.3
190352	218
192910	226.5
193481	220
195017	226.4
195673	241.2
196179	242.6
198972	250.9
199918	239.1
201163	247.6
202413	244.4
202874	231.9
203317	232.2
203837	228.6
204480	226.3
204908	229.4
205362	231.4
205952	238.1
206144	237.2
206810	230
207120	240.5
207544	242.2
208064	244.6
208254	243.9
208803	247.2
208995	252
209432	246.9
209817	239.5
210154	257.4
210813	243.4
211858	251.2
212716	241.4
213270	240.3
213536	242.6
213984	247.5
214459	251.7
214794	251.1
215382	245.3
216352	240.5
218361	214.1
219116	216.1
220058	207.1
220739	208.8
222030	205.6
224269	203.3
224923	215.7
225909	235.5
226711	234.5
227027	233.1
227776	224.5
229423	232.4
230422	233.9
231066	241.6
234817	245.2
235480	252.1
236114	241.4
236734	247.4
237294	243.1
237868	239.1
238558	245.6
239013	245.8
239477	247.4
239973	252.8
240945	259.7
241366	263.2
242007	279
242346	280.2
243071	263.7
243429	252.3
243856	249.9
244347	236.7
244864	230.4
245441	219.4
247681	214.7
250133	200.2
251005	213.9
251864	195.4
252739	196.7
253636	195.4
255498	199
256309	201.9
257100	204
258661	203.9
260353	209.6
260916	205.7
262092	208.9
262930	214.6
264509	228.1
265653	199.9
266326	211.7
267442	188.7
268181	187.2
269154	194.2
270222	198.8
271256	184.7
272311	190.4
273310	193.9
274321	194.1
275350	198.4
276326	193.2
277361	202.2
278350	204.5
279320	211
280269	215.3
281758	223.7
283785	231.3
285380	228
286128	226.4
287036	231.4
287538	230.4
288233	231
290153	234.9
290730	220.4
291367	217.1
292405	207.6
293057	206
293779	206.7
294568	212.7
295930	213.1
297921	217.1
298741	224.4
299621	231
300472	236.1
301402	239
302280	236
303226	240.2
304232	240.7
304901	250.2
305655	248.6
306547	244.8
307495	225.8
308744	227.8
309389	226.2
310168	233.2
311013	237.8
311868	239
312676	241.9
313414	251.6
314144	256.7
314867	257.1
315572	246.8
316200	272.6
316897	251.6
317734	245.2
318559	233.4
319480	255.8
320358	249.2
322015	257.2
322767	260.4
323526	260.3
324280	260.5
324971	266.2
325720	264
326321	266.1
326972	270.1
327590	271.9
328221	275.1
329475	265
330208	271.7
330740	272.6
331438	273.1
331944	282.4
332285	289.1
332462	288.4
332919	298.6
333380	278.1
333890	285.8
334261	278.6
334748	270.5
335287	255.7
335918	241.9
336725	239.6
337391	234.2
339298	250.1
340456	200.7
341802	205.2
343282	204.8
344446	211.9
345980	220.3
348298	221.1
349688	216.2
350925	209.4
352275	209.2
355302	193
356898	186.1
358712	185.8
360957	201.2
363385	206.3
366235	201.9
367856	199.9
369446	214.7
371090	224.6
372646	229.6
376568	227
378096	240
379696	239.1
381132	246.8
382670	245.8
384534	258.1
385398	264.6
386144	259.2
388062	255.2
389946	250.1
391896	266.3
392544	259.5
393579	273.6
394560	260.7
398086	276.3
399722	277.1
400504	283.2
402000	283.1
402731	275.7
404181	276.5
404927	280.5
406368	279.6
407093	285.6
408600	284.5
409383	275.2
409383	274.2
410206	282.6
411071	283.5
412962	274.9
413948	264.9
414963	271.6
415717	276.4
416193	271.7
417191	273.4
417698	271.8
418245	274.6
419260	273.7
419808	271.2
420350	273.8
421484	268.6
422074	266.4
422649	270.6
423764	267.7
424332	268.3
424840	270.8
425242	270
425569	265.4
425975	255.3
426598	252.1
427285	248.2
427566	242.5
429006	219.7
429876	227.2
431063	211.5
431445	207.6
432599	209.8
433674	207.5
434804	200.3
435989	201.7
437152	201.3
438356	202
439565	199.1
441220	201.1
442411	203.5
443562	208.1
444650	201.7
445829	201.2
446984	204.9
448103	201.9
449244	198.4
450455	193.3
451593	192.5
452283	199.1
452795	204.3
453514	203.3
454023	208.3
455279	202.4
456591	195.5
458049	190.7
459430	194.4
460792	199.9
461687	205.2
462133	210
463456	208.1
464866	204.4
466265	203.4
467602	205.5
468323	206.5
468810	215.5
469470	218.7
469941	229.2
470597	232.7
471046	243.7
471763	243.9
472095	245.6
473102	241.2
474162	233.1
475218	232.8
476240	236.6
477162	239.1
477719	236.5
478124	231.3
478721	220.8
479144	218.8
480108	223.8
481035	223.4
481932	227.3
482803	231.4
483649	231.4
484465	231.2
485276	233
486043	232.9
486816	231.3
487541	237.1
488268	242
488689	240.9
488996	252.8
489475	249.3
489722	242.6
490445	243.3
491191	246.7
491959	243.7
492738	239.7
493507	239.1
494311	238.3
495085	238.5
495853	237.6
496608	236.4
497366	236.5
498104	232.8
498865	230.6
499610	230.8
500363	228.2
501130	230.8
501866	231.2
502625	232
503375	232.2
504083	234.1
504777	233.9
505516	235.5
506287	236
507011	238.2
507714	237
508476	240.3
509247	233.4
510008	236.4
510765	235.2
511515	242
512269	238.2
512997	239.2
513724	241.5
514429	243
515113	247.2
515771	246.2
516417	245.5
517069	245.3
517706	247.7
518334	245.5
518965	243.5
520892	241.9
521552	236.8
522216	235.8
522923	233.7
523666	230.3
524409	227.8
525164	224.7
525908	222.7
526661	221.2
527454	220.3
528262	220.7
528747	214.5
529101	211.4
529640	204.4
530016	200
530685	195.1
531035	193.8
531662	190.5
532119	199.8
533246	199.4
534364	205
535483	206.4
536622	212.9
537770	211.2
538959	205
540154	203.6
541345	208.1
542502	210.3
543676	209.6
544804	209.7
545956	204.6
547013	202.5
547573	208.8
547972	213.6
548933	215.2
549830	219.9
550637	221.7
551124	222.3
551452	226.3
551979	222.1
552250	220.3
552961	223.6
553626	224.3
554254	226.7
554831	233.9
555345	241
555637	243
555839	249.1
556143	244
556364	250.5
556724	245.6
556889	240.4
557385	238.1
557887	234.5
558183	229.7
558393	230.2
558929	230.3
559461	228.3
559972	231.6
560459	231.9
560930	234.6
561309	234.1
561846	240.1
562272	242.3
562690	245.7
563115	245.8
563517	247.6
563918	251.4
564311	252.4
564699	252.6
565077	251.4
565466	253.7
565851	254.3
566233	253.9
566619	254.5
567007	253.2
567381	253.9
567777	252.8
568167	253
568556	250.2
568946	251.3
569331	250
569728	251.3
570139	251.8
570548	251.8
570955	249.6
571367	251.6
571775	250.3
572190	246.3
572619	247.7
573037	249.2
573462	248.7
573902	251.8
574353	251.9
574803	252.1
575265	248.9
575730	252.5
576222	252.9
576723	251.3
577242	251.3
577769	251.1
578305	249.1
578857	252.9
579435	251.5
579821	244.1
580019	243.8
580400	236.2
580695	230.3
581160	225.2
581507	219.4
582000	215.4
582391	209.9
583034	206.7
583413	210.6
586406	224
586893	226
587647	234.4
588034	238.8
588716	246.3
589224	250.2
589868	248.1
590335	243.6
590893	237.4
592279	225.7
592697	229.4
593415	233.2
593870	238.1
594639	238
595189	232.9
595950	221.2
596515	216.4
597443	216.3
597966	219
598833	226
599434	229.4
600882	232.5
602278	237.9
603673	239.1
605076	244.5
606374	248.5
607708	254.6
608929	259.2
610136	257.7
611319	259.6
612514	258
613709	256
614923	252.5
616227	252.4
617544	252.3
618955	247.9
620338	245.4
621760	243
623214	238.6
624690	237.3
625570	234.3
626215	227.8
627211	214.9
627999	205
629446	198.7
630295	199.9
632001	199.5
632856	195.6
634592	192.1
635489	193.9
636957	193
638127	194.3
639848	187.7
640760	189.1
642405	190.2
643204	190.4
644662	194.1
645470	194.6
646723	188.6
647588	190.5
648946	192.1
649598	194.8
650891	187.8
651556	192
652802	185.8
653448	185.3
654473	191.3
655202	193.2
656286	198.4
656882	198.7
657923	191.3
658474	189.2
659524	182.4
660084	183.9
660981	186.6
661650	189.8
662669	187.8
663206	189
664192	189.1
664690	185.8
665645	178.2
666174	178.5
666995	172.7
667569	171.6
668447	175.6
668934	178.5
669751	185.5
670176	189.3
670916	192.6
671286	194.6
671926	192.5
672386	194.8
673095	198.7
673475	202.3
674173	209.2
674521	213.7
675589	220
676170	217.4
676524	214
677068	215.6
677380	217.4
677984	226.5
678291	230
678914	230.8
679252	230.3
679732	223
680081	225
680608	218.4
680920	216.2
681531	217.3
681849	219.7
682446	222.6
682762	221.3
683262	218.7
683612	217.5
684142	217.5
684419	219.4
684949	219.5
685217	219.7
685716	223.5
685980	224.4
686425	224.3
686726	227.3
687227	228.7
687470	228.8
687949	232.3
688195	233
688652	235.8
688881	234.9
689304	235.8
689603	239.9
690057	235.6
690294	234.8
690771	240
690999	234
691432	235.6
691672	236.6
692057	235.5
692338	235.9
692765	232.9
692990	234.8
693433	234.1
693639	234.1
694068	235.4
694300	234.4
694672	235.8
694941	236.9
695383	236.7
695618	237.6
696062	234.6
696287	234.8
696717	235.4
696963	232.9
697331	232.4
697660	232.2
698120	231
698386	228
698880	226.4
699102	227.7
699633	227.6
699909	226
700389	228.7
700744	227.6
701242	228.2
701606	228.8
702158	229.3
702381	230.3
702988	232.4
703384	232.8
703934	231.2
704211	231.2
704973	233.9
705410	228.5
706141	228.6
706409	228.1
709680	219.7
710237	220.2
711104	218.9
711421	218.7
712833	218.5
713843	222.3
714288	221.7
715180	217.7
715750	222.1
716704	208.1
717065	205
718064	192.9
718779	184.3
719794	187.8
720337	195.2
721318	206.3
722039	211.3
723133	213.4
723464	213.2
724445	210.3
725059	206.3
725937	206.6
726322	208.1
727192	204.5
727732	205.5
728568	205.1
728921	205.4
730299	204
730949	204.1
731329	204.9
732141	203.8
732548	205.9
733261	203.9
733543	204.4
734223	205.3
734604	207.4
735167	201.7
735459	201.3
736079	204.1
736460	209.7
737034	208.1
737266	211.3
737889	210.6
738272	206.5
738844	200.3
739137	197.8
739842	185
740277	178.9
741021	178.6
741307	176.6
742075	177.9
742558	182.3
743233	181.7
743589	180.4
744354	181.2
744843	182
745836	180.2
746643	183.1
747110	180.8
747759	180.8
748101	180.4
748913	181.4
749401	182.9
750194	184.8
750476	184
751301	186.2
751830	190.1
752605	188
752978	196.5
753984	191.5
754394	195.8
755241	200.5
755495	201.9
756357	206
756871	210.7
757561	215
757962	219.2
758259	215.3
758475	217.6
758883	217.9
759306	214.9
760202	208.8
760500	206.9
761453	206.1
762064	212
762871	216
763319	215
763686	225.7
763934	221.4
764249	224.1
764833	222.6
765735	216.8
766110	215.7
767096	213.5
767737	217.7
768655	222.4
769050	221.4
769514	228.1
769787	226
770133	231.5
770447	235.6
770724	238.2
770994	235.6
771260	237.7
771708	229.5
772076	230.9
773043	230
773680	233.3
774548	236.9
775051	240.5
776037	238.8
776636	243.9
777556	246.3
777900	246.1
778798	245.8
779364	243.9
780268	248.5
780612	242.8
781535	248.7
782059	246.2
783263	252.1
784147	246.9
784692	250.7
785413	253.3
785789	255.4
786587	260.3
787076	256.9
787805	248.1
788033	247.9
788887	229.5
789381	226.3
790153	218.2
790538	221.3
791491	215.4
792081	205.1
792943	204
793260	209
794608	199.4
795202	195.2
796467	189.3
797099	188.4
798512	191
Source: NOAA

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